Which was not something I was attempting to look into when I asked how predictions affect results. My mind was thinking in the humanities realm: how self-fulfilling prophecy seems to jeopardize the future or create an excuse for future actions.
I got my knowledge question from a situation I couldn't grasp: Trump claims that the election will be rigged in Hillary's favor. When I heard this, I thought how incredibly unfair of him to cry wolf before voting even begins. Just saying that he'll be defeated gives him lee-way to be able to walk away from the election no matter the results with his pride still intact. And that to me seems completely unjust. He is predicting that he'll lose, so when the results come out his victory will be glorified or his loss will already have it's blame on Hillary.
But when this question was discussed in TOK, most people leaned towards a mathematical interpretation of it, just like Google did. While sifting through articles on Google I came across the term predictive
|Linear regression, showing a predictive model.|
Statisticians use these things to analyze a whole slew of different things, but that's all still looking at
On a second Google search, I found something that hints a little nearer to an answer in an article about the psychology of self-prediction. The article discusses the psychological tracking of self-predictions and the actual results of them, based on a theoretical framework presented by Koehler and Poon in 2006. They said that people have a natural tendency to predict their future actions with an optimism-bias, to where the higher their intent the moment they predict, the higher the probability they will actually complete the task. But with that optimism-bias comes the risk of under-weighting possible obstructions, such has a loss of intent or situational barriers.
The deeper I read, the more and more I saw the same thread of statistical reasoning within the brain. It seems as though you could almost take a skeleton predictive model, and plug in our brains to one end, and out the other end you could see the psychology of self-prediction. Incredibly interesting, but still not exactly talking about how this thing happens and what it affects.